FORECAST OF RENEWABLE ENERGY GENERATION TREND IN CHINA
Abstract
Developing and utilizing renewable energy have become a common choice for all countries to ensure energy security, cope with climate change, and achieve sustainable development. Based on the data released in the Statistical Yearbook of China 2021, this paper predicts the data trends of two indicators, installed renewable energy capacity and total electricity consumption, from 2021 to 2030 by using the grey prediction model. According to the forecast results, by 2030, China's renewable energy installed capacity will reach 19,4674 GW, and power generation will be 42,261 billion kW, while the total electricity consumption in China will rise up to 12,738.3 billion kWh. This shows that China will still be unable to achieve its nationwide carbon neutrality goal by 2030. There is still a long way to go to accomplish the whole society's electricity consumption by relying entirely on renewable energy generation, but it has a substantial reference value for China's double carbon target. The recommendations of the research include: continuous increase in the renewable energy installed capacity in the whole society; accelerating energy transformation; strengthening research on renewable energy technology and the environment; establishing a renewable energy data platform; enrichment of the research methods and models for renewable energy development.
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