RISK-ORIENTED BUDGET MANAGEMENT IN THE SYSTEM OF ENSURING THE FINANCIAL SECURITY OF THE STATE
Abstract
The article presents a discussion of the concept of a risk-oriented approach in budget policy as a tool for ensuring the financial security of the state, in the context of martial law and related economic challenges. The article examines the current threats to budgetary stability, which include economic, social, political, financial and military risks. The author proposes a system of prioritisation of management measures, taking into account the level of impact and probability of each type of risk, which allows the identification of priority areas for ensuring financial stability. The work emphasises the importance of an integrated approach to risk analysis and ranking, which contributes to the more efficient use of budgetary resources and increases the adaptability of the financial system of the state to external challenges. The study is based on the systematisation of risks and their assessment using visual tools such as priority matrices and bubble diagrams, which allow for a detailed display of the structure of threats. This approach guarantees the implementation of operational management in the context of uncertainty, thus enabling the integration of both short-term and long-term factors. The study examines the stages of risk-based management in budget policy, commencing with the identification of risks and concluding with the formulation of a comprehensive response strategy. In particular, it emphasises the necessity for regular monitoring of risks and the adjustment of budgetary measures in accordance with changes in the economic and political environment. The principal managerial techniques for each category of risk are organised and systematic, including the expansion of the defence budget, the stimulation of investment, the reduction of the debt burden and the support of social programmes. These measures facilitate the attainment of an optimal degree of financial sustainability, even in circumstances of considerable instability. It can be concluded that the implementation of a risk-oriented approach to budgetary policy in Ukraine will facilitate the assurance of financial stability for the state and mitigate the adverse effects of both internal and external risks. The proposed approaches facilitate a more rational distribution of budgetary resources, thereby maintaining the stability of public finances in challenging circumstances and contributing to the restoration of economic stability in the post-war period.
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